Despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin (BTC) is proving to be a maturing financial asset, exhibiting lower volatility than major U.S. stock indices. According to recent data, Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility has dropped to around 27–28%, falling below the S&P 500 (~30%), the Nasdaq 100 (~35%), and even the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks (~40%).
Stability Amid Conflict: A Turning Point for BTC
This remarkable calm comes at a time of heightened global tension, particularly after U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. While traditional equities responded with sharp fluctuations, Bitcoin’s price briefly dipped below $100,000 but quickly rebounded to over $102,000, underscoring a new level of investor resilience.
In contrast to earlier geopolitical shocks—such as the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when BTC’s volatility surged above 60%—this episode shows how Bitcoin has evolved from a speculative asset into a more stable store of value.
Long-Term Holders Drive Market Stability
Supporting this trend is a record accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders, who now control 14.53 million BTC, or nearly 70% of the total supply, according to Glassnode.
This consolidation reduces circulating supply and cushions BTC from sharp sell-offs, particularly during crisis-driven market movements.
Moreover, institutional adoption continues to grow. ETFs, exchanges, and corporate treasuries now hold over 30% of all circulating BTC, further contributing to price stability and reduced volatility.
Price Outlook: $150K BTC by 2025?
As central banks resume accommodative policies and fiat concerns grow, institutional players are deepening their exposure to Bitcoin. Experts like Arthur Hayes and Eugene Cheung believe BTC will continue its ascent, maintaining prices above $100,000.
Some analysts are even forecasting a price target of $150,000 by the end of 2025, driven by:
- Shrinking available supply
- Increasing corporate and ETF holdings
- Rising investor confidence in BTC as a hedge
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Quiet Strength Amid Global Chaos
Bitcoin’s performance during the recent geopolitical unrest highlights a critical milestone in its financial evolution. With lower volatility than traditional equities and growing long-term accumulation, BTC is becoming a reliable macro asset, not just for speculators, but for institutions and strategic investors alike.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.