Only Elite Bitcoin-Holding Firms May Survive 2025 Shakeout
As Bitcoin treasury companies become a defining trend of 2025, a recent report from venture capital firm Breed warns that only a handful of these firms are likely to survive a looming “death spiral”.
A Bitcoin treasury company’s long-term success depends on its ability to maintain a premium over its net asset value (MNAV)—the total assets minus liabilities per share.
The death spiral refers to a vicious financial cycle where a decline in Bitcoin’s price leads to a drop in MNAV, driving the company’s stock price closer to its true NAV. This erodes investor confidence and makes it increasingly difficult to raise capital.
What Triggers the BTC Treasury Death Spiral?
Breed’s report outlines a seven-stage decline for BTC treasury firms:
- Bitcoin price drops
- MNAV declines
- Stock price approaches NAV
- Debt and equity financing dry up
- Margin calls force BTC sales
- Market sentiment worsens
- Stronger companies acquire weaker ones
This feedback loop not only threatens the firms involved but could also amplify selling pressure on Bitcoin, fueling a broader market downturn.
“Only a select few companies will sustain a lasting MNAV premium,” the report said, citing strong leadership, disciplined execution, and innovative strategies as key survival traits.
Equity Financing Could Limit Fallout
Despite the ominous outlook, the report highlights that most BTC treasury firms currently use equity financing instead of debt, which could soften the impact of a collapse. If this balance shifts toward debt-based financing, the risk of widespread contagion may rise.
Equity-based models are less exposed to forced selling during downturns, protecting both the firm and the Bitcoin market.
Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Accelerates in 2025
The trend of corporate Bitcoin treasuries was pioneered by Michael Saylor’s firm, Strategy, which began accumulating BTC in 2020. In 2025, the model gained popularity with over 250 organizations now holding Bitcoin—including corporations, ETFs, and even pension funds, according to BitcoinTreasuries data.
Final Take: Only the Strong Will Thrive
As Bitcoin treasury holdings become mainstream, Breed’s warning is a timely reminder: great strategies must be backed by sound execution, risk management, and leadership. Those unable to maintain their premium over NAV may not survive the next cycle.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.