Key Technical Structure Signals Downtrend, But Dips Grow Shallower
Bitcoin is trading within a well-defined descending channel, as its price action continues to chart lower highs and lower lows, indicating persistent bearish pressure since the May 22 local high of $112,000. Despite this downward trend, recent market behavior suggests a shift in dynamics: dips are becoming increasingly shallow, and short-term holders remain in profit — a sign of underlying resilience.
Descending Channel Structure: A Closer Look
A descending channel is a bearish technical pattern characterized by price bouncing between two downward-sloping trendlines. Since peaking at $112,000 on May 22, Bitcoin has faced:
- A 10% drop to $100,000
- A lower high at $110,000 on June 10
- Another 10% correction amid geopolitical tension
- A failed breakout above $109,000, followed by a 3% dip
This consistent pattern shows sellers remain in control — but weakening momentum is visible.
CME Futures Gap Filled at $106,000
One key technical event was the CME futures gap around $106,000, which was “filled” as Bitcoin briefly dipped to $105,000 in recent sessions. CME gaps are price voids left when Bitcoin trades outside traditional CME exchange hours — typically during weekends — and markets often revisit these gaps before resuming trend direction.
With the gap now closed, this reduces one bearish overhang that many traders monitor and could open the door for stabilization or even recovery.
Glassnode Data: Short-Term Holders Still in Profit
According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin remains above its 1-month realized price — the average price paid by all investors in the last 30 days — which sits at $105,600.
Key insights:
- Short-term holders (1-week) have an average cost basis of $106,300
- Current BTC price is around $107,700, meaning these investors are still in profit
- Profit-taking pressure exists, but deeper corrections are being absorbed
This signals that market sentiment is not deeply bearish, and Bitcoin is maintaining key psychological levels despite macro and technical headwinds.
Shallow Pullbacks Hint at Market Strength
Bitcoin’s recent pullback from $109,000 to the $105,000 range was met with quick buying, suggesting buyers are stepping in sooner than before. This change in behavior hints that:
- Larger investors may be accumulating
- Sell-offs are losing momentum
- The market remains cautiously optimistic despite the channel
A decisive break above the upper trendline, currently near $110,000, would signal a potential shift toward a bullish reversal.
What to Watch Next
For bullish confirmation:
- Watch for volume-backed breakout above $110,000
- Monitor on-chain cost basis shifts in short-term and mid-term holder cohorts
- Keep an eye on macroeconomic events and institutional flows, especially as ETF demand evolves
Conclusion: Bearish Trend with Bullish Undercurrents
Bitcoin’s position inside a descending channel points to ongoing correction, but resilience is building beneath the surface. As CME gaps fill and short-term holders remain in the green, this sets the stage for a potential reversal — if resistance can be broken convincingly.
Until then, expect cautious consolidation, with the $105K–$110K range being key territory for bulls and bears alike.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.