Kenneth Rogoff, a renowned Harvard economics professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), once predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) would collapse to $100 instead of reaching $100,000 within a decade. Today, with Bitcoin trading above $113,000, Rogoff admits he misjudged the cryptocurrency’s resilience and regulatory response.
Rogoff’s 2018 Bitcoin Prediction
Back in 2018, when Bitcoin traded below $10,000, Rogoff confidently stated that the digital asset would lose most of its value. His reasoning? Governments and regulators would crack down on Bitcoin adoption, limiting its use and preventing it from thriving as a mainstream financial instrument.
Instead, the opposite happened. Bitcoin has seen exponential growth over the last decade, even surpassing $100,000 in 2025—a milestone that defied Rogoff’s bearish outlook.
Why Rogoff Says He Was Wrong
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Rogoff reflected on his miscalculation:
- He underestimated Bitcoin’s role in the underground economy, where it serves as a store of value for transactions outside traditional banking systems.
- He overestimated the willingness and ability of regulators to impose strict rules that would limit cryptocurrency usage.
According to Rogoff, he was “far too optimistic about the U.S. coming to its senses regarding sensible cryptocurrency regulation,” suggesting that lax regulatory measures allowed Bitcoin to flourish.
Bitcoin’s Current Position
As of now, Bitcoin trades at $113,603, cementing its status as the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap. This surge reflects increasing institutional adoption, mainstream acceptance, and its growing appeal as an inflation hedge.
Despite numerous calls for tighter regulation, global policymakers have been slow to implement strict frameworks, allowing crypto markets to mature largely without government intervention.
Rogoff’s failed prediction highlights a key takeaway for investors and policymakers:
- Underestimating technological adoption can lead to inaccurate forecasts.
- Regulatory uncertainty continues to shape the crypto market, but lack of strict oversight has given Bitcoin room to grow.
With central banks exploring CBDCs and governments debating stablecoin policies, the crypto landscape is evolving rapidly. However, Bitcoin’s resilience has proven stronger than many traditional economists anticipated.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.