Historical weakness and macro jitters pressure BTC while SOL leads altcoin gains
Bitcoin (BTC) entered September on fragile footing, with traders warning of a potential 12% monthly decline amid macro uncertainty, thinning volumes, and historically poor performance during the month.
Data shows that Bitcoin has fallen in nine of the past 14 Septembers, averaging a double-digit loss. The market’s seasonal weakness resurfaced in 2025 as BTC opened the week near $110,000, its weakest level in nearly two months. The total crypto market capitalization also slid to $3.74 trillion, marking a three-week low.
Solana shines as majors struggle
While Bitcoin has been flat over the last 24 hours, Solana’s SOL surged 4%, making it the best performer among major assets. Cardano (ADA) rose 1.5%, while XRP gained just 1%. Traders view Solana’s rally as a sign of selective capital rotation in an otherwise cautious market.
“The broader capitalization chart continues to record a series of lower lows, signaling a downward trend,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, who warned that Bitcoin could retreat toward $105,000, a long-standing support zone just above the key $100,000 psychological barrier.
Investor sentiment deteriorates
The Crypto Fear Index slipped back toward 40, its lowest reading since April, reflecting growing unease. Seasonality has added to the caution: in 2017, Bitcoin lost 8% in September despite a bull rally, while in 2019 the token shed nearly 14%, ushering in months of sideways action.
ETF flows highlight the fragile backdrop. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. posted $440 million in outflows last week, while Ether ETFs drew $1 billion in inflows, suggesting capital rotation rather than new growth.
According to CryptoQuant, spot ETFs now hold more than 1.3 million BTC, nearly 6% of total supply, rivaling the largest exchanges.
Traders warn that without a macro catalyst, Bitcoin risks testing critical support levels in the coming weeks. All eyes are on U.S. non-farm payroll data due Friday, expected to show just 45,000 new jobs, underscoring a slowing labor market that could weigh further on risk assets.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.