Benjamin Cowen cites historical cycles but notes outcomes aren’t guaranteed
Bitcoin’s relentless rally this year has reignited optimism across crypto markets, but one prominent analyst warns that investors should not ignore the possibility of a severe correction in the next bear market.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, said Bitcoin could experience a 70% drawdown from its eventual cycle peak, pointing to historical precedents where the asset fell 94%, 87%, and 77% during previous bear markets.
“Does it have to happen? No,” Cowen explained in an interview published Thursday. “But history would at least caution us to at least believe that it might.”
From $250K to $75K?
Speculation around Bitcoin’s cycle top varies widely. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently projected BTC could hit $250,000 by year-end. If that scenario plays out, Cowen’s 70% correction model would imply a retracement to around $75,000.
Cowen added that he plans to take profits if Bitcoin accelerates sharply in Q4. “If we start screaming higher in Q4 … I’ll just take profits back to stables,” he said, noting he may not re-enter until mid-2026.
At publication time, Bitcoin trades near $117,000, up more than 88% over the past year, according to CoinMarketCap.
Market Sentiment and Cycle Dynamics
While Cowen warned that tops can form abruptly, he acknowledged expectations for another strong rally before the cycle ends.
“Investors are hopeful we are going to coil up and go into that final rally,” he said. “But if that starts to happen, just remember the top could occur at any moment. Everyone’s going to be euphoric if we start to see a move up.”
Other analysts are divided. Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, said he expects 2026 to be an “up year,” while Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg projected BTC could hit $140,000–$150,000 before the next downturn. In contrast, MicroStrategy chairman Michael Saylor insists ‘winter is not coming back.’
Ethereum’s Role
Beyond Bitcoin, Cowen argued Ethereum (ETH) is likely to outperform BTC toward the end of the current cycle. He expects Ether to show near-term weakness, but strengthen as the cycle matures.
The ETH/BTC ratio has climbed over 8% in the past month, according to TradingView.
Whether Bitcoin experiences another deep retracement or sustains higher levels depends on market liquidity, institutional demand, and cycle psychology. While the bull run may not be over, Cowen’s cautionary note highlights the volatility that remains intrinsic to crypto’s biggest asset.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.