Hyperliquid faces mounting pressure as vesting schedule begins with $410M monthly supply overhang
Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, could soon face its toughest challenge yet as billions in vested tokens enter circulation, according to research from Maelstrom Fund, the family office of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
Beginning November 29, Hyperliquid will start releasing tokens under its 24-month vesting schedule, unlocking an estimated $11.9 billion worth of HYPE for team members and early contributors. The sheer scale of the release has raised concerns about significant selling pressure.
“Put yourself in the shoes of a Hyperliquid developer. You’ve worked insanely hard for years. A life-changing sum in tokens is starting to vest; and it’s only one click away,” wrote Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert.
Monthly Supply Overhang
The report highlights that current buyback efforts would only absorb around 17% of the new supply, leaving an estimated $410 million in monthly overhang. Such an imbalance could weigh heavily on token price performance, particularly if team members liquidate large portions of their allocations.
While some digital asset treasuries (DATs) — including the recent Sonnet BioTherapeutics and Rorschach partnership involving $583 million in HYPE and $305 million in cash — are attempting to stabilize demand, analysts warn these initiatives are still “a drop in the bucket” compared to the looming supply influx.
Market Dynamics and Competition
Adding to the challenge, Hyperliquid now faces rising competition from Aster (APX), a decentralized exchange linked to Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao. Aster recently surpassed $2 billion in total value locked (TVL), intensifying rivalry in the perpetuals market.
“You don’t eat the crypto establishment’s lunch and walk away unchallenged. Business is war,” noted Maelstrom’s report.
Interestingly, Hayes himself sold all his HYPE tokens earlier this week, reportedly using the proceeds as a deposit for a new Ferrari. Despite this, he maintains that HYPE could rally 126-fold by 2028, driven by fiat debasement and growth in stablecoin markets.
For now, however, the immediate test lies ahead: whether the $11.9B vesting unlocks will overwhelm demand or if Hyperliquid can navigate one of the largest token supply events in the market.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.