Traders predict reopening after Oct. 15 as Bitcoin climbs amid Washington gridlock
Traders on prediction platform Polymarket are betting that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown will continue beyond October 15, but most expect it to end within a month, stopping short of breaking the record for the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
According to the market data, bettors give a 72% probability that the federal government will reopen on or after October 15, with more than $1.4 million in trading volume in a $4 million contract tied to that timeline.
A separate Polymarket contract focused on the shutdownâs total duration shows a 67% chance the standoff will last between 10 and 29 days, and just a 27% chance it will extend beyond a month. That would put it well below the record 35-day shutdown that took place during the Trump administrationâs 2018â2019 budget impasse.
âThe current betting data suggests that while traders expect a drawn-out negotiation, they donât see this reaching historic lengths,â said one analyst familiar with the markets.
Shutdown Uncertainty and Bitcoinâs Surge
The latest government stalemate in Congress has raised concerns over economic stability, as lawmakers have failed to pass resolutions needed to fund key federal operations.
Some market observers have drawn a connection between the shutdown uncertainty and Bitcoinâs recent rally, which saw the worldâs largest cryptocurrency surge past $125,000, marking a new all-time high.
âPeriods of political dysfunction often reinforce Bitcoinâs appeal as a hedge against centralized risk,â According to BITX crypto strategists. âTraders may be positioning for volatility in traditional markets.â
Polymarket, an Ethereum-based prediction platform, has become a popular venue for traders seeking to speculate on political and economic outcomes. The platform has seen rising activity in recent weeks amid global macroeconomic uncertainty and renewed interest in digital assets.
As the budget standoff continues, both policymakers and traders appear braced for a prolonged â but not unprecedented â shutdown period.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.