Arthur Hayes Declares the End of Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle — Says It’s All About Monetary Policy Now

The BitMEX co-founder argues that Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets are no longer driven by halving events, but by global liquidity and central bank decisions from the U.S. and China.

Bitcoin’s Traditional Cycle Faces Its Breaking Point

According to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, the long-accepted four-year Bitcoin cycle — tied to halving events — has officially run its course. In his latest analysis, Hayes asserts that this cycle’s mechanics have fundamentally shifted due to changes in global monetary policy, not timing or supply reductions.

“Traders are trying to repeat history, but this time the four-year pattern will fail,” Hayes wrote.

The Role of Chinese and U.S. Liquidity

Hayes traced Bitcoin’s previous bull runs to liquidity cycles:

• The first rally in 2013 ended when both the Fed and China reduced money printing.
• The second “ICO cycle” (2015–2018) collapsed as Chinese credit growth slowed.
• The third cycle, sparked by COVID-era stimulus, faded once the Fed tightened policy in late 2021.

This time, Hayes believes China’s neutral stance removes the deflationary pressure that previously halted rallies.

“Money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise,” Hayes said.

Despite Hayes’ perspective, some analysts continue to defend the four-year cycle model. Glassnode recently noted that Bitcoin’s current price action still “echoes pri

He argues that Bitcoin’s price movements are dictated by liquidity — the supply and cost of money in the global economy — primarily in the form of U.S. dollars and Chinese yuan, rather than halving cycles or institutional interest.

A Different Kind of Bull Market

Hayes highlighted that the current market structure is “completely different” from past cycles. He pointed to the U.S. Treasury’s $2.5 trillion injection into markets through its Reverse Repo program and President Donald Trump’s push for easier monetary policy aimed at stimulating growth.

In addition, plans to deregulate banks and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are creating what Hayes described as an environment of “abundant liquidity.” According to CME futures, there is a 94% probability of a rate cut in October and 80% odds of another in December — conditions Hayes says are ideal for Bitcoin’s rise.

The Role of Chinese and U.S. Liquidity

Hayes traced Bitcoin’s previous bull runs to liquidity cycles:

• The first rally in 2013 ended when both the Fed and China reduced money printing.
• The second “ICO cycle” (2015–2018) collapsed as Chinese credit growth slowed.
• The third cycle, sparked by COVID-era stimulus, faded once the Fed tightened policy in late 2021.

This time, Hayes believes China’s neutral stance removes the deflationary pressure that previously halted rallies.

“Money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise,” Hayes said.

Despite Hayes’ perspective, some analysts continue to defend the four-year cycle model. Glassnode recently noted that Bitcoin’s current price action still “echoes prior patterns,” while Gemini’s Saad Ahmed stated that “some form of cyclical rhythm will likely persist.”

If Hayes is correct, Bitcoin’s future could be less about halving calendars — and more about the decisions made in Washington and Beijing.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.