Economist Predicts Sharp Recovery Following Rare October Drop
Bitcoin’s recent decline could be short-lived, as historical data suggests the world’s largest cryptocurrency may rebound up to 21% within a week, according to a market economist.
“Drops of more than 5% in October are exceedingly rare,” explained economist Timothy Peterson in a recent market post. “This has only happened four times in the past decade — and each time, Bitcoin recovered quickly.”
Peterson pointed out that similar drawdowns occurred in October 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. In those instances, Bitcoin rebounded by 16%, 4%, and 21%, respectively, while 2021 marked the only exception when the asset continued to slip slightly lower.
October’s Bullish History Fuels ‘Uptober’ Optimism
Since 2013, October has earned the nickname “Uptober” among traders for its strong historical returns. Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin has averaged a 20.10% gain during this month, ranking as its second-best performing month, just behind November’s 46% average rise.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) trades near $113,700, recovering from a sharp drop to $102,000 following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on China. Earlier this week, Bitcoin had reached a new all-time high of $125,100, before macroeconomic headlines triggered a wave of selling pressure.
If historical behavior repeats, a 21% recovery from Friday’s low could lift Bitcoin back toward $124,000 within the next seven days, nearly reclaiming its previous high.
Market Analysts Remain Confident in the Uptrend
Despite the pullback, several analysts remain optimistic.
“There are still 21 days left in Uptober,” wrote Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, emphasizing that the month is far from over.
Similarly, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, commented, “This looks like the bottom of the current cycle.”
Some traders believe the current dip represents a healthy correction within a broader bull market. As one analyst put it, “Bitcoin has seen far worse corrections before every major leg up. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.”
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.