Analyst James Check said over the weekend that the market’s recent stagnation isn’t due to manipulation or institutional pressure but rather “good old-fashioned selling” from long-term investors cashing out after years of accumulation.
“The volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin holders is still underappreciated, and it’s the main source of resistance right now,” Check explained.
The sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin holders is **still** not widely appreciated, but it has been THE source of resistance.
Not manipulation, not paper Bitcoin, not suppression.
Onchain data shows that the average age of spent coins has risen, meaning that older coins are re-entering circulation as experienced holders take profits. Realized profit has surged to $1.7 billion per day, while realized losses stand at around $430 million per day — the third-highest level of this cycle.
Additionally, the revived supply from older wallets reached nearly $2.9 billion daily, suggesting that Bitcoin OGs are actively selling into strength.
OGs transferring supply to institutions
Crypto investor Will Clemente noted that much of Bitcoin’s current weakness can be traced to a transfer of supply from OGs to institutional buyers.
“The last year of relative weakness for BTC has mostly been a transfer of supply from OGs to TradFi. This dynamic will fade in the coming years,” Clemente said.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz echoed similar sentiments, explaining that many early Bitcoin holders are finally realizing profits after massive gains.
“People have been in Bitcoin so long that they’re taking some chips off the table — buying a yacht, a sports team — and we’re digesting that turnover,” Novogratz told interviewer Raoul Pal.
BTC price holds key support
Despite the selling, Bitcoin’s weekly close above $108,700 suggests that the market is still holding firm.
Analyst Rekt Capital said that “continued holding here could push Bitcoin to $120,000+ over time.”
At the time of writing, BTC trades near $110,000, facing resistance just above that level — but analysts agree that once OGs finish selling, the next leg of the bull run may finally begin.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.
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