Experts say smarter distribution and real product value could revive the struggling airdrop model
Airdrops, once considered a key tool for building crypto communities, are losing their effectiveness. Recent data reveals that nearly 88% of all airdropped tokens lose value within three months, exposing deep flaws in how projects distribute and sustain their tokens.
According to a seven-year analysis of crypto airdrops, over $20 billion worth of tokens have been distributed since 2017, but most failed to maintain value, highlighting the gap between short-term hype and long-term sustainability.
“The success of an airdrop depends on who receives the tokens,” explained Robert Hoogendoorn, head of content at DappRadar. “Projects that focus on phased or targeted distribution — like Optimism — can reduce mass sell-offs and keep genuine holders engaged.”
88% of airdropped tokens lose value within 3 months.
But their impact on growth has been massive – onboarding millions of users and reshaping Web3 ecosystems. So… are airdrops a shortcut to adoption, or just expensive hype machines? Let's dive in 👇
Experts point to poor tokenomics, weak product-market fit, and a lack of real utility as major causes of airdrop failure. General market trends also play a significant role — airdrops released during downturns often lose momentum quickly as traders dump tokens for liquidity.
Smarter targeting and onchain engagement
In the decade since the first recorded airdrop, crypto projects have evolved their approach, incorporating onchain engagement, social media campaigns, and liquidity incentives to improve distribution.
“Projects should analyze onchain behavior, trading activity, and even social reputation to identify genuine participants,” said Hoogendoorn. “We’re already seeing reputation-based models where community involvement influences who qualifies for rewards.”
This approach aims to curb airdrop farming — a trend where users create multiple wallets solely to claim tokens, diluting real community growth.
Only strong projects can break the curse
Jackson Denka, CEO of Azura, believes that flawed airdrops aren’t doomed by structure alone but by weak fundamentals.
“No amount of financial engineering can fix a bad product. But when airdrops are tied to a strong, growing platform, they can appreciate over time,” he said.
As seen with Hyperliquid’s highly praised community-driven airdrop, experts agree that utility, real adoption, and transparent distribution are essential to breaking the airdrop curse — and restoring trust in one of crypto’s oldest marketing tools.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.
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