Analysts see 63% upside for Bitcoin and project $485 price target for the stock
Investment bank Citi has initiated coverage of MicroStrategy (MSTR) with a “Buy/High Risk” rating and a $485 price target, framing the company as a leveraged play on Bitcoin’s performance. The bank’s outlook suggests a 63% potential upside for the world’s largest cryptocurrency over the next 12 months.
According to Citi’s research note released Tuesday, the target aligns with the bank’s base-case Bitcoin forecast of $181,000, compared to current levels near $113,000. Analysts project that MicroStrategy’s stock could maintain a 25–35% net asset value (NAV) premium, consistent with its historical 2.5x to 3.5x Bitcoin yield multiple.
“MicroStrategy remains the most direct and liquid equity vehicle for investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin without holding the asset directly,” the report noted.
MicroStrategy as a Bitcoin Proxy
The report highlights how MicroStrategy, under Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, has effectively transformed from a software firm into a Bitcoin-focused holding company since its 2020 pivot. The firm’s strategic use of convertible debt, preferred equity, and stock issuance to fund Bitcoin purchases has amplified its exposure to the cryptocurrency’s performance.
As of Monday, MicroStrategy disclosed a new purchase of 168 BTC at an average price of $112,051, bringing total holdings to 640,418 BTC. The company’s position now represents one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries globally.
“Saylor’s conviction in Bitcoin as a superior treasury asset continues to shape MicroStrategy’s capital strategy,” Citi’s analysts said, adding that the firm’s Bitcoin yield per fully diluted share remains a key metric driving its NAV premium.
Under Citi’s bear-case scenario, where Bitcoin declines 25% and MicroStrategy’s NAV premium flips from +35% to a 10% discount, the stock could lose about 61% of its value. However, the bank’s base case emphasizes a more bullish outlook supported by institutional adoption trends, ETF inflows, and macro demand for digital assets.
Market data shows MSTR shares trading at around $301, up 1.5% in early Tuesday trading following Citi’s initiation.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.