Weak manufacturing data may stretch Bitcoin’s market cycle beyond historical norms
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI — a key measure of U.S. industrial health — may hold critical clues about the length and trajectory of the current Bitcoin cycle, according to market analysts. Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s major price peaks often coincide with ISM PMI tops, suggesting a potential delay in the next market climax as U.S. manufacturing remains weak.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has stayed below the neutral 50 threshold for seven consecutive months, signaling a continued contraction in industrial activity. Traditionally, readings above 50 indicate economic expansion, a condition that has historically aligned with stronger Bitcoin performance.
“All three past Bitcoin cycle tops have broadly aligned with this monthly, oscillating index,” noted market analyst Colin Talks Crypto, highlighting the consistent overlap between Bitcoin’s cyclical highs and PMI peaks.
Is the ISM (aka "business cycle") going to be correlated with the next $BTC top?
If so, it would indicate a considerably longer cycle than bitcoin cycles typically run for. Such an extension would be an outlier amongst traditional measurements of bitcoin cycles. Because of this… https://t.co/DJ0MAFO52ypic.twitter.com/OFFa35wxVb
“If that relationship holds this time, it would suggest a considerably longer Bitcoin cycle than we’ve seen before,” he added.
Economic Weakness and Tariff Pressures Slow Recovery
Earlier in 2025, the manufacturing PMI briefly crossed above 50, raising hopes of recovery. However, it quickly slipped back into contraction territory, underscoring persistent economic headwinds. The latest report for September showed a modest uptick, but rising prices and falling exports signal an uneven industrial rebound.
Several manufacturers have voiced concern over tariffs, weak global demand, and high input costs. One purchasing manager from the transportation equipment sector said business remains “severely depressed,” adding that companies are passing on tariff-related surcharges, increasing prices by up to 20%.
Despite this, ISM clarified that a contraction in manufacturing does not automatically imply a broader U.S. recession, noting that a sustained reading above 42.3 still corresponds with overall economic growth.
Macro Factors Could Extend Bitcoin’s Cycle
Analysts believe that the extended weakness in manufacturing could delay Bitcoin’s next macro top, as liquidity conditions and business sentiment remain subdued. Historically, strong PMI readings have coincided with peak crypto enthusiasm and capital inflows, while weak manufacturing phases tend to stretch the accumulation and expansion phases of Bitcoin’s cycle.
If the PMI–Bitcoin correlation continues to hold, this could mean the current bull cycle extends beyond historical norms, giving investors more time for accumulation before a major peak.
In short, the ISM data suggests that Bitcoin’s next explosive phase may take longer to materialize, but when it does, it could arrive alongside a broader economic rebound.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.
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