Despite Slowing Bitcoin Buys, Strategy Could Enter the Index by Year-End
Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, could soon join the S&P 500 index, according to a new report from 10X Research. Analysts estimate a 70% chance the company will be added before year-end — even as its Bitcoin accumulation slows and investor sentiment remains muted.
The company is set to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 30, which are expected to include a $3.8 billion gain from fair-value Bitcoin accounting. A profitable quarter could strengthen Strategy’s eligibility for inclusion in the S&P 500’s December 19 rebalancing, 10X Research said.
“Capitulation always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning,” the report noted, suggesting that the October 30 results may reignite speculation around the December inclusion decision.
Investor Sentiment Weak, But Catalyst in Sight
While market confidence in Strategy’s stock has faded in recent months, analysts at 10X say the upcoming earnings release is an “obvious catalyst” that could reset investor expectations.
The firm’s market net asset value (mNAV) — a measure comparing enterprise value to Bitcoin holdings — has recently fallen below 1, a level that limits its ability to raise funds through new share issuance. Several other digital asset treasury (DAT) firms, including BitMine, Metaplanet, and DeFi Development Corp, have faced similar valuation pressures this year.
Despite a market correction that erased nearly $19 billion in value, Strategy acquired only 778 BTC in October, down 78% from September’s 3,526 BTC purchase. Analysts, however, view this slowdown as a potential turning point.
“This is often the point in the cycle where liquidity returns and outsized moves take shape,” 10X Research said, adding that volatility and renewed risk appetite could soon favor accumulation again.
Credit Rating Adds New Benchmark
In a historic first, S&P Global Ratings issued a “B-” credit rating for Strategy, categorizing it as speculative-grade but with a positive outlook. This makes it the first Bitcoin-treasury company to receive an S&P rating, potentially setting a benchmark for traditional finance institutions assessing crypto-linked firms.
If Strategy secures S&P 500 inclusion, it would mark a major milestone for digital-asset-backed corporations entering mainstream financial indices.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.