Venture capitalist Vineet Budki warns that Bitcoin’s market psychology remains unchanged and predicts a sharp correction despite long-term bullish prospects.
Bitcoin’s Boom-and-Bust Pattern Isn’t Over
Bitcoin’s famous four-year market cycle — characterized by explosive rallies followed by steep crashes — is alive and well, according to Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital. Speaking at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, Budki told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin could drop 65–70% in its next downturn, likely within the next two years.
“Bitcoin will not lose its utility if it comes down to $70,000,” Budki said. “The problem is that people don’t understand the asset they are holding. When people buy something they don’t truly understand, they’re the first to sell during panic — and that’s where the pressure comes from.”
His comments suggest that even as Bitcoin matures, emotional trading and herd behavior will continue to drive market volatility.
Why the Next Drop Could Be Brutal
Budki argues that the lack of investor understanding of Bitcoin’s economic fundamentals — particularly its fixed supply, halving mechanism, and decentralized nature — will cause another panic-driven sell-off.
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced major corrections of 70–80% after each cycle peak. Analysts note that while the asset’s fundamentals are strengthening, retail speculation and leverage trading still dominate sentiment-driven phases.
Long-Term Vision: $1 Million BTC Still on the Horizon
Despite warning of a sharp correction, Budki remains deeply bullish long term, forecasting Bitcoin to surpass $1 million within the next decade. He expects growth to come from both speculative demand and real-world adoption, as more users and institutions integrate Bitcoin into payments, savings, and infrastructure.
“Adoption will not just come from hype — but from real utility,” he said.
Debate: Is the 4-Year Cycle Still Relevant?
While Budki believes Bitcoin’s halving-driven pattern remains intact, other analysts disagree.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, claims the cycle is losing influence as macroeconomic forces — such as interest rates and liquidity growth — now play a bigger role in Bitcoin’s price movements.
Meanwhile, data from BitcoinTreasuries.net shows institutions collectively hold over 4 million BTC (around 20% of supply), suggesting institutional involvement may stabilize volatility over time.
However, Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, argues the cycle remains alive because investors still treat Bitcoin as a risk-on asset — moving in and out of it depending on global risk appetite.
Bitcoin may have evolved, but its psychological and cyclical nature hasn’t disappeared. The next downturn, experts warn, could again test conviction across the crypto market — even as Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory continues upward.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.