Exchange prepares to file derivatives license as competition heats up across crypto platforms

Gemini Space Station Inc., the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is reportedly planning to launch its own prediction markets platform, marking one of its most ambitious moves since going public earlier this year.

According to reports from Bloomberg, Gemini has filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a derivatives exchange — a step that would allow it to offer event-based contracts, enabling users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events.

“The move signals Gemini’s effort to diversify beyond traditional crypto trading and capture the fast-growing market for decentralized prediction tools,” said crypto market strategist Ethan Ross. “It’s a natural progression for exchanges looking to expand their revenue streams amid competitive pressure.”

Weekly trading volume on Kalshi since July 2021. : DeFiLlama

The prediction market sector — where users can speculate on everything from election outcomes to economic indicators — has seen explosive growth in recent months. Kalshi, a regulated prediction platform, reported record weekly trading volumes of $1.2 billion between Oct. 27 and Nov. 2, surpassing its previous $1.01 billion record.

Its closest rival, Polymarket, also crossed the $1 billion weekly volume mark earlier this year, showing the sector’s rising investor appetite.

Gemini’s renewed expansion follows its September initial public offering, which raised $433 million and valued the firm at $4.4 billion. Analysts say the company’s push into prediction markets could define its next growth phase, especially as institutional interest in event-driven derivatives increases.


Prediction markets becoming the next crypto frontier

Gemini now joins a growing list of crypto and fintech firms — including Coinbase, MetaMask, and DraftKings — integrating or exploring prediction markets. Meanwhile, institutional backers are moving in as well: the Intercontinental Exchange, parent of the New York Stock Exchange, recently invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation.

“The entry of major exchanges like Gemini could legitimize prediction markets in the eyes of regulators and investors alike,” said fintech analyst Marina Patel. “If approved, Gemini could help bridge the gap between crypto speculation and real-world finance.”

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.

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