Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect a resolution within days as the Senate advances a bipartisan funding bill.
The record-breaking U.S. government shutdown appears to be entering its final phase, as prediction markets signal a near-certain resolution in the coming days. With pressure mounting from both parties and a Senate-approved funding bill awaiting House action, markets are betting heavily on an imminent reopening.
On Polymarket, traders are assigning a 96% probability that the government reopens between November 12 and 15, coinciding with the expected House vote on the Senate’s bipartisan spending package. Over on Kalshi, similar contracts tied to the shutdown’s duration have surged in activity, pricing in a resolution within 72 hours.
“The political incentives for both parties are aligned toward ending this quickly,” said a Washington-based analyst. “No one wants to go into the midterm cycle with federal workers unpaid and voter sentiment collapsing.”
Senate Deal Clears Path but Leaves Health Care Dispute Unsettled
The Senate passed the stopgap bill in a 60–40 vote, securing temporary government funding through January 30. The legislation reverses widespread federal layoffs, restores back pay and food assistance, and reactivates suspended agency functions.
However, it leaves unresolved the issue of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which are set to expire soon — a sticking point that could reignite partisan battles in December.
Several Senate Democrats crossed party lines to support the bill, prioritizing immediate relief over the subsidy debate. Meanwhile, some House Republicans, facing pressure from constituents, have urged Speaker Mike Johnson to move swiftly on ACA-related measures once the government reopens.
“We’ll have a deliberative process, but we must get federal workers back on payroll first,” Johnson said in a brief statement.
Midterm Implications Loom
Political analysts say the current standoff could carry heavy consequences into next year’s midterm elections. According to Polymarket data, traders see a 44% chance Republicans retain the Senate but lose the House, suggesting a split verdict from voters frustrated by Washington’s dysfunction.
Both major parties risk sharing the blame for the shutdown, with prediction markets showing nearly equal odds — around 27% each — for a Democratic or Republican sweep.
As optimism builds on Capitol Hill, the betting markets are signaling that the longest U.S. government shutdown on record could end by November 14. Yet, the political standoff over health care subsidies ensures the battle in Congress is far from over.
Disclaimer
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