Whale Movements Align With Typical Bull-Market Patterns, Not Panic Selling
Bitcoin’s recent decline has stirred anxiety across the market, especially as large holders — known as whales — move significant amounts of BTC to exchanges. But according to blockchain analysts, this activity reflects normal late-cycle dynamics, not a collapse in confidence.
On Thursday, a major Bitcoin whale reportedly associated with trader Owen Gunden transferred 2,400 BTC (worth roughly $237 million) to Kraken. While such a move typically triggers alarm, experts argue the broader on-chain data paints a very different picture.
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reports that the monthly average spending by long-term holders has increased from 12,000 BTC per day in early July to around 26,000 BTC now.
This trend, they explain, reflects steady and evenly spaced distribution, not emergency selling.
“This steady rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts — a pattern typical of late-cycle profit-taking, not a sudden exodus of whales,” Glassnode said.
They added that long-term holders have taken profits in every previous cycle, and current behavior fits that historical pattern.
Experts: Market Is Cooling, Not Crashing
Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that whale selling is structural, not emotional.
“Late cycle doesn’t mean the market is capped,” Liu noted. “Momentum has cooled while macro and liquidity steer the ship.”
He highlighted that Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit Ratio (NUPR) at 0.476 suggests short-term lows may be forming, indicating potential strategic entry points.
Still, he warns that a single indicator cannot confirm a market bottom — broader confirmation is needed.
Fearful Sentiment, But No Clear Cycle Top Yet
Market sentiment has turned cautious as traders react to macroeconomic uncertainty, shifting toward assets more directly tied to policy trends and credit flows.
Charlie Sherry, head of finance at BTC Markets, noted that whale selling alone is not unusual, but the current market shows less buy-side support, which makes the selling pressure more visible.
Even so, Sherry says it’s too early to conclude that Bitcoin has reached a cycle peak.
Historically, Bitcoin’s market tops occur roughly four years apart —
- December 2017 (≈1,067 days after the bottom)
- November 2021 (≈1,058 days after the bottom)
Based on those cycles, the current market may still have room before a definitive peak forms.
Bottom Line
While Bitcoin whales are selling, analysts emphasize that this is expected late-cycle behavior driven by profit-taking, not a mass exit. The broader data continues to show a controlled distribution phase, suggesting that the market may be stabilizing rather than collapsing.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.