Analysts caution traders against trusting widely shared ‘bottom’ predictions amid rising fear and heavy ETF outflows
As crypto markets continue to reel from sharp declines, sentiment analytics firm Santiment has issued a cautionary note: market bottoms almost never occur when everyone believes they have. With Bitcoin briefly sliding below $95,000, social media has grown louder with predictions that the worst is over — a signal Santiment says traders should treat with skepticism.
Crypto Bottom Calls Flood Social Media
According to the platform, widespread declarations of a bottom have become a trending topic following Bitcoin’s steep dip on Friday.
Santiment wrote that traders should “be cautious when you see a widespread consensus forming about a specific price bottom,” emphasizing that “true bottoms often form when the majority expects prices to fall further.”
Analysts note that bottom-calling typically spikes whenever psychological levels break — such as Bitcoin losing its hold on $100,000. The firm argues that historically, these moments tend to precede further downside rather than confirm recovery.
Sentiment Turns Deeply Negative
Santiment’s data shows that social media sentiment around Bitcoin has fallen to a one-month low, with negative comments dominating discussion.
The platform reported that Bitcoin’s social dominance surged above 40%, calling it evidence that the crypto community is engaged in a “very fearful conversation.”
One strategist noted, “Extreme negativity often reflects panic rather than certainty. It doesn’t guarantee a bottom; it simply shows traders are reacting emotionally.”
At the same time, mentions of Michael Saylor spiked sharply, as many traders speculated that Strategy was offloading Bitcoin during the selloff — a claim Saylor publicly denied.
Mixed Signals as Experts Remain Bullish
Despite the sharp downturn, industry veterans including Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee continue to project a potential rally toward $200,000 by year-end. Their outlook contrasts sharply with the current sentiment, offering a reminder that long-term forecasts often diverge from short-term fear cycles.
ETF Outflows May Offer a Contrarian Signal
Santiment also highlighted that significant withdrawals from spot Bitcoin ETFs could paradoxically be constructive for price. The firm noted that “large ETF inflows have often marked local tops, while significant outflows have coincided with market bottoms.”
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.17 billion in outflows over the past three sessions, including $866 million on Thursday — the second-largest single-day exit on record.
With fear rising and consensus forming too quickly, analysts caution that traders should focus on data rather than crowd sentiment. Under current conditions, certainty about a market bottom may be the biggest warning sign of all.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.