Research firm argues current market dynamics differ sharply from past bull runs
Grayscale Research says bitcoin may reach new all-time highs in 2026, rejecting the idea that the asset is entering a long downturn tied to its traditional four-year halving cycle. The firm outlined its view in a report released Monday, countering concerns that recent volatility marks the start of an extended correction.
Grayscale Pushes Back on Cycle Theory
Analysts at Grayscale said the widely cited four-year pattern — in which bitcoin rallies to a peak and then slides into a deep pullback — does not reflect current market conditions. Instead, they argue that this cycle looks structurally different, with no parabolic surge resembling past pre-crash periods.
Bitcoin has endured choppy trading since October, at one point dropping 32% from its recent top. Prices briefly dipped to about $84,000 on Monday before rebounding above $86,000 early Tuesday. Despite the swings, Grayscale emphasized that large drawdowns of 25% or more are common during expansions and “don’t automatically signal the start of a prolonged slump.”
Institutional Structure and Macro Tailwinds
Grayscale noted that institutional capital now drives much of the market through exchange-traded products and corporate treasuries — a departure from past cycles dominated by spot-exchange speculation. The firm added that a supportive macro backdrop, including possible U.S. rate cuts and increasing bipartisan interest in crypto legislation, could help sustain momentum.
Tom Lee, CEO of BitMine, echoed the sentiment, arguing that fundamentals such as onchain activity and tokenization trends remain strong even as prices struggle to reflect them.
Lee told CNBC he expects bitcoin to break its previous record as soon as January, while Grayscale projects a more extended timeline into 2026. Both viewpoints reflect a shared belief that the market’s structure has shifted enough to challenge long-held assumptions about bitcoin’s rhythm.
Disclaimer
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