Firm sees potential move above 4.1% that could pressure risk assets into 2026
Analysts at ING are flagging renewed upside potential in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, suggesting that the market may be approaching a pivotal moment. Despite softer economic indicators, the benchmark yield continues to hold above the 4% threshold—an area the bank describes as a resilient trading zone.
The 10-year yield has hovered between 4% and 4.20% since early autumn, even as recent data painted a cooler picture of economic momentum. The November ADP employment report, which marked the third contraction in five months, would normally pull yields lower. Instead, the yield briefly dipped to 4.06% before snapping back, signaling unusual strength in the face of weak labor figures and easing inflation.
According to ING, “Treasuries love that 4% to 4.1% trading range”, with a temporary dip below 4% still possible. But a decisive move above 4.1% could represent a more durable shift, potentially steering yield behavior deep into 2026. Such a breakout would likely tighten financial conditions and weigh on risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies and high-growth equities.
Markets now await the PCE inflation report, a release known for moving bond markets. ING notes that a soft reading could drag yields under 4%, though any decline may be short-lived. A stronger print—or persistent resilience—would increase the odds of an upward breakout.
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