Researchers find redundant blockchain events inflating key metrics across major analytics dashboards
New research suggests that the widely reported trading volume on Polymarket may be significantly overstated. According to analysis from Paradigm, a data bug involving duplicated blockchain events has led several analytics platforms to misinterpret Polymarket’s activity.
Redundant Events Are Inflating Polymarket’s Reported Activity
A Paradigm researcher explained that Polymarket’s on-chain structure emits multiple “OrderFilled” events for every trade one set representing the maker, and another representing the taker. These logs describe the same transaction from two viewpoints, but major dashboards have been adding them together.
This results in a doubling of reported trading volume, even when the activity is not related to wash trading.
Because Polymarket’s data includes splits, merges and multi-layered interactions, standard blockchain explorers interpret logs without distinguishing between unique trades and mirrored representations. As a result, both notional volume and cash-flow volume appear inflated across commonly referenced analytics platforms.
Impact on Polymarket’s Reported Growth
The miscount affects dashboards from DefiLlama, Allium, Blockworks and multiple Dune Analytics pages, according to the findings. This revelation challenges headline metrics that have helped position Polymarket as one of crypto’s standout performers during a tumultuous year for trading markets.
The inflation issue raises questions around reports that Polymarket recorded more than $3.7 billion in monthly volume and was valued as high as $9 billion based on $25 billion in lifetime activity.
Prediction markets are becoming an increasingly important financial category. Paradigm’s analysis argues that the sector must adopt consistent, transparent reporting standards to avoid misinterpretation of complex on-chain data.
As Polymarket prepares for broader expansion, the accuracy of its trading metrics will remain central to investor confidence and platform credibility.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.