Long-term trend indicators suggest Bitcoin entered a bear phase in November, with historical models pointing to a potential 2026 bottom near $56,000
Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market, according to onchain and technical indicators that track long-term market structure. Despite widespread expectations that 2026 would mark renewed growth, several metrics now suggest the cycle has shifted.
A critical signal comes from Bitcoin falling below its one-year moving average, a level widely used to identify long-term trend reversals. This breakdown historically aligns with the transition from bull to bear markets. Multiple components of a composite bull score index including network activity, investor profitability, demand strength and liquidity turned bearish in early November and have not yet recovered.
Bitcoin began 2025 near $93,000, surged to an October peak above $126,000, and finished the year lower than where it started. The failure to reclaim longer-term averages has reinforced concerns that the broader trend has weakened.
Based on historical behavior, Bitcoin bear markets often retrace toward the realized price, defined as the average cost basis of all circulating coins. Using this model, the projected downside range sits between $56,000 and $60,000, with the bottom likely forming sometime in 2026.
A decline to this range would represent roughly a 55% drawdown from the all-time high, noticeably milder than prior bear markets that saw losses of 70% to 80%.
Unlike previous downturns, the current bear phase lacks major systemic collapses. Institutional participation, ETF-based demand and more consistent long-term buyers appear to be cushioning downside risk, suggesting a more stable though still challenging market environment.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.