Bitcoin onchain data is flashing a notable warning signal. For the first time since late 2023, holders are collectively realizing net losses, marking a shift after more than a year of sustained profit-taking and raising concerns about weakening market momentum.
Recent CryptoQuant analysis shows that Bitcoin holders have moved from realizing gains to realizing losses over the past month. This transition reflects a broader slowdown in realized profit activity that has been unfolding since early 2024. Profit peaks have formed progressively lower highs, a pattern that often signals declining price strength even when spot prices remain relatively elevated.
Since late December 2025, cumulative realized losses have reached the equivalent of around 69,000 BTC, highlighting growing sell pressure at prices below previous cost bases. At the same time, annual net realized profits have fallen sharply, now sitting near levels last seen during the early stages of the 2022 bear market.
The current onchain structure closely resembles the 2021–2022 transition from bull to bear market. During that period, realized profits peaked, weakened gradually, and eventually flipped into sustained losses ahead of a prolonged downturn.
Declining net realized profits often indicate fading bullish momentum. While short-term price rebounds may still occur, the broader onchain data suggests the market could be entering a phase of increased downside risk, with recent recoveries resembling countertrend or bear-market rallies rather than a renewed uptrend.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.