US asset manager Roundhill Investments has submitted filings to the US Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval for six exchange-traded funds tied to event contracts on the 2028 US elections. If cleared, the products would allow investors to gain exposure to the outcome of the presidential, Senate and House races through regulated ETF structures.
Election Prediction ETFs Could Reshape Retail Access
The proposed lineup includes funds aligned with Democratic and Republican outcomes across the presidency and both chambers of Congress. Each ETF would invest in event contracts, a type of derivative designed to track binary political results.
Industry analysts have described the structure as potentially groundbreaking, noting that ETFs may offer simpler access compared to traditional prediction market platforms.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in an X post on Saturday ;
Regulatory and Capital Risks for Investors
In its filing, Roundhill Investments cautioned that only the fund tied to the winning outcome is expected to deliver capital appreciation. The remaining funds could see their net asset value fall sharply, potentially approaching a total loss once results are finalized.
The firm also highlighted regulatory uncertainty surrounding political event contracts. Oversight from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission remains under review, and future policy shifts could affect the classification or availability of such instruments.
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