A strategist at Wells Fargo believes larger U.S. tax refunds in 2026 could reignite speculative trading activity, potentially channeling up to $150 billion into equities and Bitcoin by late March.
In a note cited by CNBC, analyst Ohsung Kwon said higher refunds particularly among upper-income households may revive the so-called “YOLO” trade, a term used to describe aggressive retail positioning in high-volatility assets. According to Kwon, excess savings from tax returns are likely to flow back into equities, with a portion potentially entering digital assets.
Bitcoin and retail favored stocks such as Robinhood and Boeing were highlighted as potential beneficiaries if risk appetite strengthens.
Bitcoin Flows Depend on Market Sentiment
Despite the optimistic projection, analysts caution that capital allocation will hinge on broader market conditions. Nicolai Sondergaard of Nansen noted that retail participation in crypto depends largely on momentum and sentiment. Without a sustained upward trend, funds may shift toward alternative assets perceived to have stronger social traction.
The anticipated increase in refunds follows the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law by Donald Trump in July 2025. The legislation introduced tax adjustments that could result in larger payouts during the 2026 filing season.
Meanwhile, derivatives data indicates that some professional traders remain net short on Bitcoin, even as large holders quietly accumulate spot positions underscoring a divided outlook between institutional hedging strategies and long-term accumulation trends.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.