Bitcoin may be trading at a significant discount compared to gold and global liquidity trends, according to Jan3 CEO Samson Mow, who argues that current metrics point to potential upside for the cryptocurrency.
Mow said Bitcoin is between 24% and 66% below its historical trend when measured against gold’s market capitalization and the global money supply. At the same time, he described gold as “overextended” after April futures closed at $5,247.90 per ounce. Tokenized gold assets were trading even higher, reflecting sustained demand for safe-haven exposure.
Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Z-Score Signals Reversal Potential
A key metric highlighted in the analysis is the Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. This indicator measures how far the ratio deviates from its historical average. A reading below zero suggests Bitcoin is trading below its long-term relative value, while a drop below -2 has historically preceded strong rallies.
The ratio’s Z-score currently stands around -1.24. In previous cycles, deeper negative readings coincided with major price recoveries. In November 2022, the metric fell below -3 during the market turmoil triggered by the collapse of FTX. Over the following year, Bitcoin rallied more than 150%.
Market Outlook Remains Divided
Despite the bullish interpretation, some analysts warn that geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic pressures could push Bitcoin toward $50,000, mirroring patterns seen during the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin recently declined more than 50% from its peak to around $60,000 before rebounding near $66,400.
Whether the current discount relative to gold translates into a sustained rally may depend on broader liquidity conditions and investor risk appetite in the months ahead.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.