US lawmakers have proposed a bipartisan bill called the Preventing Real time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act (PREDICT Act), aiming to bar the US president, vice president, Congress members, political appointees, and their families from participating in prediction markets. The legislation responds to concerns that individuals with access to inside information could profit from wagers on political events, government actions, and policy decisions.
The bill, introduced by Representatives Adrian Smith and Nikki Budzinski, sets penalties including a 10% fine on the total contract value and the disgorgement of all profits to the US Treasury. Budzinski emphasized that closing loopholes is critical to prevent insider profit opportunities.
The PREDICT Act follows growing federal and state scrutiny of prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which have drawn attention for contracts on sports events, wars, and political actions. Earlier this year, Sens. John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced legislation to prevent CFTC registered entities from listing contracts resembling gambling or casino-style bets.
Platforms have responded by tightening rules to block political candidates and professional athletes from wagering, while states continue to pursue legal actions against prediction market operators.
The bill signals an intensifying effort by US lawmakers to regulate and secure integrity in digital prediction markets.
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