Bitcoin ($BTC) faces a critical week as $18.6 billion in monthly options are set to expire this Friday. Currently trading around $69,852, Bitcoin has been confined to a tight range between $67,700 and $71,600, closely following fluctuations in US stock markets amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict.
March Bitcoin Call and Put Options Overview
Call options dominate the March open interest at $11.2 billion, while put options stand at $7.4 billion, a 34% lower total. Despite the bullish inclination, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain levels above $74,000 for seven weeks, raising concerns that over 90% of call options could expire worthless if BTC fails to surpass $71,000 by Friday.
Deribit leads the market with a 76% share and $14.1 billion in open interest, followed by OKX (7.1%) and CME (6.6%). Most call options were placed above $90,000, leaving only $2 billion in contracts below $78,000, making 77% of calls likely to expire worthless. Meanwhile, $2.2 billion of put options remain active at $66,000 or higher, giving a slight advantage to bears.
Probable Outcomes for March Expiry
- $65,000–$69,000: Put options net $1.8B advantage
- $69,001–$72,000: Put options net $950M advantage
- $72,001–$75,000: Put options net $430M advantage
- $75,001–$78,000: Call options net $790M advantage
For Bitcoin bulls to influence the March expiry, a 6% rally from $70,900 is required to reach $75,000, a challenging target under current market conditions.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.