The proposed Crypto Clarity Act, designed to establish clear market structure rules for digital assets in the United States, currently has about a 30% chance of passing in 2026, according to Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute. Hammond noted that while legislative movement continues, persistent uncertainty and shifting timelines remain major obstacles.
His estimate closely aligns with other industry indicators. A Punchbowl survey of lobbyists placed the probability at 26%, while prediction platform Kalshi has shown fluctuating odds, highlighting ongoing uncertainty surrounding the bill’s future. Lawmakers are attempting to advance the legislation through committee, with some aiming for a vote around April 20, although Hammond cautioned that deadlines have repeatedly shifted.
Bank Opposition and Stablecoin Yield Debate Remain Key Hurdles
The largest resistance to the legislation comes from traditional banking institutions, particularly regarding whether stablecoins should offer yield. Negotiations involving major stakeholders, including Coinbase, the White House, and bill drafters, have failed to produce consensus. A previously proposed “yield deal” collapsed after failing to satisfy both banking groups and crypto advocates, forcing renewed negotiations.
Political Pressure and Institutional Stakes
Political challenges are also shaping the bill’s outlook. Hammond highlighted concerns among Democratic lawmakers, especially those who previously received crypto industry funding, as they navigate regulatory debates involving decentralized finance and anti-money laundering compliance.
Additional scrutiny surrounding Donald Trump’s crypto related activities could further complicate support if investigations intensify later in the year. Despite these challenges, Hammond believes incremental progress in committees may keep the legislation alive into midyear, offering a narrow but viable path forward.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.