Bitcoin (BTC) is once again at a pivotal moment, as over $13.8 billion in BTC options contracts are set to expire this week. This massive expiry, scheduled for Friday, May 31, 2025, is creating intense speculation in the market. The key question: Can bulls push BTC back above the $110,000 mark before the contracts settle?
Currently, BTC is trading just below $109,000, down 2.3% from its recent high amid global macroeconomic uncertainty and renewed geopolitical risks.
Understanding the Options Expiry Impact
Options contracts give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell BTC at a specific price. When billions of dollars in contracts expire, the potential for extreme volatility increases. The upcoming expiry is one of the largest ever recorded, with the max pain price—the strike price at which most losses occur for option holders—currently estimated around $107,000.
“With $13.8B in options expiring, price swings are expected. The battle zone is $107K to $110K,” said a Deribit analyst.
Bullish Momentum Tested
Over the past month, Bitcoin bulls have shown strength, pushing BTC to new highs near $111,000, driven by rising institutional interest and inflows into spot ETFs. However, that momentum has softened as U.S. economic data hints at a longer-than-expected interest rate hold by the Federal Reserve.
If bulls regain $110K before Friday, many call options will close in profit, amplifying buying pressure and possibly triggering a short squeeze.
Conversely, failure to break above $110K could favor bears, particularly if BTC dips closer to $107K or below.
Institutional Inflows and Whale Activity
According to CoinShares, Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $320 million last week, signaling continued confidence from institutions. Additionally, on-chain data from Glassnode shows that whale wallets (holding over 10,000 BTC) have been accumulating—a bullish signal ahead of the expiry.
“These large players often reposition around key expiry dates, so watching their moves this week is critical,” noted a CryptoQuant strategist.
What to Watch Ahead of Expiry
- $110K resistance: A decisive close above this level could give bulls the edge.
- Volatility spike: Expect sudden moves as expiry nears, especially on May 30–31.
- Options open interest: Shifts in OI data may signal how traders are positioning.
Conclusion
With $13.8B on the line, this week’s BTC options expiry could dictate the short-term market direction.
Whether Bitcoin reclaims $110K or succumbs to bearish pressure, the outcome will likely set the tone for June’s price action. Traders should brace for elevated volatility and monitor key technical and on-chain indicators.