After an explosive 385% rally since late 2024, XRP is showing signs of exhaustion, according to recent on-chain data and technical chart patterns. With price currently hovering around $2.33, analysts are warning of a potential 25% correction, placing the next major support near $1.76.
Overheated Market? Realized Cap Tells the Story
Recent metrics reveal that over 70% of XRP’s realized capitalization was accumulated near the current price range — a historical signal that often precedes market tops.
“When too many buyers enter late into a parabolic rally, the market becomes fragile,” says on-chain analyst Ali Martinez.
This accumulation near local highs echoes similar patterns from past cycle tops, suggesting XRP may be overextended.
90% Drop in Active Addresses Since March 2025
Another red flag is the plunge in active XRP addresses, which have declined by over 90% since March 2025. This sharp drop in user activity implies a significant reduction in transactional demand and network engagement.
Reduced activity on-chain often reflects waning user interest and speculative exhaustion.
This metric is especially concerning given that strong user participation typically supports sustainable rallies.
Technical Pattern: Falling Wedge Breakdown Ahead?
XRP’s price chart is currently forming a falling wedge pattern, traditionally a bullish continuation setup. However, if support breaks, it may instead trigger a 25% correction, taking the price down to the $1.76 support zone.
“A confirmed breakdown below $2.20 would open the door for deeper losses,” warns crypto technician CryptoCred.
XRP Top May Be In — Caution Advised
While XRP has outperformed many top altcoins in 2025, on-chain and technical data suggest that the top may already be in. With weakening fundamentals, reduced network usage, and historical patterns aligning, a downside correction of 25% is a real possibility.
Investors should monitor the $2.20 and $1.76 support levels closely in the coming weeks.