Recent on-chain analysis reveals a concerning trend for Toncoin (TON) investors: over 90% of TON holders are currently in the red. As of now, only 6% are in profit, and 3% are at breakeven, highlighting a period of heavy losses for the majority of investors.
TON Trades Around $3.14 Amidst Investor Pressure
Toncoin is currently trading at $3.14, reflecting a 0.27% drop in the last 24 hours. The price weakness is compounded by the fact that a significant number of holders entered the market during higher price periods.
91% of Toncoin’s total supply is held by large wallets, indicating whale dominance over the network. Despite the bearish sentiment, large transaction volumes remain high, surpassing $27 billion in the last seven days, suggesting continued activity at the institutional or whale level.
Weak Market Correlation and Capital Outflows
Toncoin shows minimal alignment with broader crypto trends. Its correlation with Bitcoin is only 0.12, meaning TON’s price is largely uncorrelated with BTC’s movements. This weak correlation isolates Toncoin from broader bullish momentum.
Net capital flows have also turned negative, with over –$1.85 million flowing out in the past week. This consistent outflow is a strong indicator of declining investor confidence.
Meanwhile, community engagement is also dipping, with a 0.34% decline in TON’s Telegram community members over the last week. Lower engagement often signals waning retail interest, especially in challenging market conditions.
Young Holder Base, Uncertain Support Levels
The majority of Toncoin holders have only recently entered the market. 82% of TON wallets are between 1–12 months old, and just 15% have held their tokens for over a year. This highlights a relatively inexperienced holder base, which may be more reactive to market volatility.
Toncoin’s outlook heavily depends on its ability to maintain current support levels and attract renewed liquidity.
Conclusion
With over 90% of holders in loss positions, weak market correlation, and steady capital outflows, Toncoin faces a critical test. Unless support holds and sentiment improves, further downside pressure could materialize. For now, whales continue to dominate the supply, but whether they choose to accumulate or offload may decide the token’s short-term fate.