Bitcoin (BTC) could slide back toward $100,000, while Ethereum (ETH) may revisit the $3,000 level, according to Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom Fund. Citing mounting macroeconomic pressures, Hayes has taken profits and rebalanced his crypto portfolio.
Macro Warning: Credit Tightening, Tariffs & Weak Jobs Data
Hayes linked the recent crypto market pullback to:
- Renewed tariff fears following a disappointing U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report (only 73,000 jobs added in July).
- Sluggish credit growth in major economies stifling nominal GDP.
- A broader risk-off sentiment that could push Bitcoin down 18.7% from its recent $123,000 ATH, and ETH back below $3,000.
“We’re not in a risk-friendly macro environment,” Hayes implied, warning of limited liquidity and uncertain demand for digital assets in the short term.
Hayes Sells $13M in ETH, ENA, PEPE
According to Arkham Intelligence, Hayes recently offloaded:
- $8.32M in ETH
- $4.62M in Ethena (ENA)
- $414K in PEPE
His wallet now holds $28.3 million, with $22.95 million sitting in USDC — indicating a defensive posture amid potential downside risk.
Will Bitcoin Crash to $100K?
Bitcoin is already down 7.7% from its $123,000 peak on July 14, while ETH has dropped 12.5% since crossing $3,900 on July 28, according to CoinGecko.
A drop to $100,000 BTC would represent a notable 18.7% correction, raising fears of a deeper pullback if macro pressures persist.
Others Disagree: “The Volatility Era is Over”
Not all analysts are bearish.
Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas noted that since BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF filing in mid-2023, BTC has experienced lower volatility and avoided major drawdowns.
Blockware Solutions’ head analyst Mitchell Askew echoed that sentiment, suggesting Bitcoin’s structural support — including institutional flows and ETF demand — may cushion against such a sharp retracement.
Final Thoughts
While Hayes’ cautious stance reflects real macro risks — like credit tightening, slowing jobs growth, and trade fears — Bitcoin remains fundamentally stronger than in past cycles. Yet, traders should be prepared for short-term volatility, especially if rate cut expectations or liquidity flows disappoint.
“Crypto isn’t in a vacuum — it’s now tethered to macro policy, real yields, and institutional sentiment.”
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.