The upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy meeting on June 16–17 could serve as a major catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that if the BoJ restarts quantitative easing (QE) or pauses its bond-tightening plan, it may set off a new leg in the crypto bull market.
“If the BOJ delays QT, and restarts selected QE at its June meeting, risk assets are going to fly,” Hayes shared on June 10.
What’s at Stake?
The BoJ previously announced a plan to reduce government bond purchases by 400 billion yen per quarter, starting in August 2024. However, officials are now reportedly discussing a smaller cut, possibly to 200 billion yen per quarter starting in 2027, as market pressures mount.
This indicates a possible pivot back to QE, where the central bank buys bonds to inject liquidity into the economy — a move that typically drives down interest rates and boosts investor demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Already Reacting to Japan’s Yield Crisis
Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $112,000 on May 22, just two days after Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit 3.185%, a historic peak. This sharp yield increase reflected rising concerns about Japan’s fiscal sustainability, leading institutions to reassess the role of Bitcoin as a hedge.
According to André Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, institutional interest in Bitcoin as a sovereign risk hedge is growing.
“Yields rise, perceived default risk rises — Bitcoin, free from counterparty risk, becomes more attractive,” Dragosch said.
QE and Bitcoin: A Powerful Correlation
Historically, central bank QE programs have often led to rallies in Bitcoin, as the added liquidity flows into high-growth and alternative markets. Should the BoJ soften or reverse its tightening stance, it could inject renewed momentum into the crypto market — possibly sending Bitcoin toward the $120,000 to $200,000 range, according to some analysts.
As traders await confirmation, the upcoming BoJ decision may carry global impact, especially with the U.S. Fed and ECB also navigating rate paths.
Bitcoin is once again in focus as a hedge against global monetary risk.