Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) traders are signaling strong confidence in a continued bull market, placing significant bets in both on-chain and centralized options markets. Despite upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, traders are largely treating it as a non-event for crypto momentum.
Bitcoin surged above $121,000 during early Monday trading in Asia, marking a 2.7% 24-hour gain. This brought its year-to-date performance to nearly 30%, with a 13% rise in July alone. Meanwhile, Ethereum rose by 3% to around $3,050, and other major altcoins like XRP, Dogecoin, BNB, and Solana recorded gains between 3% to 5%.
Derive and Deribit Show Bullish Positioning
According to on-chain data from decentralized options platform Derive, traders are betting on even higher BTC prices. A large portion of open interest is centered around the $130,000 strike for BTC options expiring on September 26.
“Almost 20% of the open interest is concentrated at the $130K call,” according to Derive’s founder. This suggests traders are expecting steady price increases over the next three months.
For Ethereum, 45% of open interest on the July 18 expiry is located at the $3,400 strike, indicating a possible breakout scenario in the near term. Deribit, a centralized options exchange, also reflects similar bullishness, with call options priced higher than puts—a sign of strong upward conviction.
Why CPI May Not Matter This Time
The upcoming June CPI report is expected to show a 0.23% monthly rise, with a 2.6% annual increase in overall inflation. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is projected to increase by 3% annually.
While inflation data has previously swayed both traditional and crypto markets due to its impact on Federal Reserve policy, many analysts believe the current crypto rally is being driven by other macro factors.
“We don’t think CPI matters much anymore,” said market insiders. Fiscal spending, global money supply growth, and a weaker U.S. dollar are seen as the dominant forces behind the ongoing crypto uptrend.
Fiscal Dominance and the Trump Tax Plan
The current administration’s pro-growth fiscal policy is seen as a continuation of previous high-deficit strategies. The recently passed tax bill under President Trump is projected to add over $3 trillion to the national debt in the coming years.
“The U.S. is once again operating under fiscal dominance, not monetary tightening,” noted experts. This environment creates easy financial conditions, which are favorable for risk assets like bitcoin.
Corporate Adoption and Pro-Crypto Legislation Strengthen the Bull Case
This week is also being referred to as Crypto Week in Washington, as the House of Representatives is set to discuss several critical crypto-related bills, including the:
- Genius Act
- Clarity Act
- Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act
Positive developments on these legislative fronts could shield the crypto market from macro shocks and reinforce growing corporate interest in digital assets.
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin rises above $121,000, up 13% in July.
- Ethereum hits $3,050, with strong bullish bets on $3,400.
- CPI data seen as less influential, as fiscal expansion drives sentiment.
- Traders bet big on $130K BTC and $3,400 ETH call options.
- Crypto Week and regulatory clarity expected to support the market further.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.