Analysts highlight leverage risks and historical support levels as Bitcoin tests critical moving averages.
Bitcoin may be approaching the end of its corrective phase, with several crypto analysts warning of a potential dip to the $104,000 level before the broader bull market resumes. The forecast centers on the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) — a long-term technical indicator currently hovering near $102,500, which has historically acted as a reliable floor for Bitcoin’s price cycles.
Key Support at the 50-Week Moving Average
According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin has tested this support zone four times since mid-2023, each marking the end of major downturns. Market analyst Sykodelic said that the level remains a critical liquidity cluster, suggesting that a final sweep toward $104,000 could reset market leverage and pave the way for recovery.
“It’s not what any holder wants to hear, but very likely we take that out,” Sykodelic noted. “The market always feels the worst right before it reverses.”
The analyst pointed to similar patterns in August 2024, when Bitcoin dipped to $49,000, and April 2025, when it touched $74,000 — both instances that preceded powerful rallies.
Market Leverage and Correction Phases
Other analysts echoed the sentiment that the ongoing weakness represents the final stages of correction. Market strategist Negentropic said, “We are seeing a repeat of the final phases of correction in September. Profit-taking is less intensive this time, and the setup opens the door to $102,000.”
Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG Research, described the pullback as a “healthy market correction”, emphasizing that institutional demand and fundamentals remain intact.
“Bitcoin may retrace to $104,000 as part of a normal consolidation phase,” Ruck said. “However, long-term institutional interest continues to strengthen, setting the stage for renewed momentum.”
Consolidation Around Key Levels
At present, Bitcoin is consolidating near $108,000, a crucial support-turned-resistance zone. The asset briefly rallied to $113,000 earlier in the week before sliding back toward the $107,000–$108,000 range.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades added that Bitcoin’s 200-day exponential moving average continues to act as a structural support, with no sustained breakdowns for more than a month throughout this cycle.
While short-term volatility may persist, many traders interpret a dip to the $104K region as a potential “final flush” before the next major rally.
If the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin’s approach to its long-term moving average could mark the final shakeout before bullish momentum returns — reaffirming its resilience even amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.