Bitcoin sentiment has shifted sharply toward the downside as prediction markets price in a higher probability of deeper losses in 2026. After a recent sell-off briefly dragged Bitcoin below the $75,000 level, traders have become increasingly cautious about the asset’s near- to medium-term outlook.
Polymarket Bets Signal Rising Bearish Expectations
On Polymarket, the probability that Bitcoin falls below $65,000 in 2026 has climbed to 72%, supported by nearly $1 million in trading volume. Additional wagers show elevated concern, with a 61% chance assigned to Bitcoin dropping under $55,000 and a 54% probability that it could still reclaim $100,000 by the end of the year. The sharp rise in downside bets reflects a clear reversal from the optimism that followed late-2024 political developments.
Bear Market Signals and Liquidity Pressures
Structural weakness rather than isolated events. Bitcoin has remained below its 365-day moving average since late 2025, a level often associated with prolonged bear market conditions. Historical trends suggest that market bottoms typically take months to form, limiting the likelihood of a quick recovery.
Macro conditions are also playing a role. Tight U.S. liquidity and restrictive financial conditions have reduced appetite for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, pressuring prices across the market.
Despite growing bearish sentiment, long-term projections remain divided. Some institutions continue to expect new highs in 2026, while near-term indicators suggest Bitcoin may face continued volatility before a clearer trend emerges.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.