Analysts expect macroeconomic tailwinds — including Fed rate cuts and easing U.S.-China tensions — to fuel Bitcoin’s next rally.
November: Bitcoin’s Best Month on Record
Despite closing October in the red, Bitcoin (BTC) has now entered November — historically its strongest month for gains. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 42.5% rise in November, suggesting that if history repeats, BTC could surpass $160,000 this month.
However, experts caution that seasonality alone isn’t enough to predict future performance. “Seasonal charts matter a lot, but they must be combined with other macro factors,” said Markus Thielen, head analyst at 10x Research.
While technical trends remain bullish, several global economic developments could play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory this month.
1. U.S.–China Trade Tensions Ease
A recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has sparked optimism for a potential trade deal. Trump described the talks in South Korea as “amazing,” hinting at progress toward tariff reductions in exchange for China curbing fentanyl exports and resuming U.S. soybean purchases.
The crypto market reacted positively to the news, especially after an earlier $19 billion liquidation event on Oct. 11, which had been partly blamed on tariff uncertainty. Still, analysts warn that the truce is temporary. “This is more of a pause in the trade war, not an end,” said Dennis Wilder, a Georgetown University China expert.
2. Fed Rate Cuts and End of Quantitative Tightening
In a major policy shift, the U.S. Federal Reserve recently announced another quarter-point rate cut, marking the lowest lending rate in three years. Market data from CME’s FedWatch shows a 63% probability of another rate cut at the December 10, 2025 meeting.
Lower interest rates typically favor risk assets like Bitcoin by making borrowing cheaper and reducing returns on traditional investments.
Additionally, the Fed will halt its quantitative tightening (QT) program on Dec. 1, ending efforts to reduce its balance sheet. This move is widely seen as bullish for crypto, as liquidity injections — or quantitative easing (QE) — often drive funds into alternative assets such as Bitcoin.
3. U.S. Government Shutdown Continues
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now entering its fifth week, is approaching record length. The political deadlock has slowed progress on several crypto-related legislative initiatives, including ETF approvals and the CLARITY Act — a bill aimed at defining digital asset regulations.
President Trump has urged Senate Republicans to abolish the filibuster to break the stalemate, posting on Truth Social:
“THE CHOICE IS CLEAR – INITIATE THE NUCLEAR OPTION, GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
A resolution to the shutdown could unlock long-awaited regulatory clarity and accelerate crypto ETF approvals, potentially fueling the next leg of Bitcoin’s rally.
With macro conditions aligning, Bitcoin could be poised for a strong November — if history rhymes. Rate cuts, trade diplomacy, and renewed liquidity all provide fertile ground for bullish momentum.
As Thielen noted, “November has been Bitcoin’s month to shine. If macro winds stay favorable, we could see history repeat itself once again.”
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.