The “Uptober” rally has officially begun as Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States record their second-best week of inflows ever, signaling renewed investor optimism and strong momentum heading into the final quarter of 2025.
$3.2 Billion Inflows Ignite Investor Confidence
According to data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.24 billion in net positive inflows during the first week of October — nearly matching their all-time record of $3.38 billion set in late November 2024.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, all-time chart, weekly
This sharp reversal follows a weak previous week of $902 million in outflows, highlighting a rapid shift in investor sentiment. Analysts attribute the turnaround to rising expectations of another U.S. interest rate cut, which has boosted confidence in risk assets like Bitcoin.
“At current run-rates, Q4 ETF flows could retire over 100,000 BTC from circulation — more than double new issuance,” said Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo.
Kalchev noted that ETF absorption is accelerating while long-term holders are easing their selling, allowing Bitcoin to form a strong technical base near key support zones.
ETF Flows Strengthen Bitcoin’s Technical Outlook
The week’s strong inflows helped push Bitcoin’s price briefly above $123,996 on Friday, marking its highest level since mid-August. This rebound aligns with October’s historically bullish trend, earning the nickname “Uptober” within the crypto community.
Data from CoinGlass shows that October delivers average Bitcoin returns of 20%, making it the second-best month for BTC performance, only behind November’s 46% average.
If ETF inflows continue, analysts expect the trend to extend toward a potential breakout above $150,000 before the end of 2025.
“Bitcoin’s breakout above $120,000 could trigger a very quick move to new all-time highs,” said Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, in an interview at Token2049 Singapore.
Macro Conditions and Fed Watch Ahead
While “Uptober” optimism is building, Bitcoin’s next move depends on several macroeconomic events in the coming days. Markets are closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which could offer clues about the timing of future rate cuts.
Additionally, the delayed U.S. jobs report—affected by the ongoing government shutdown—may add volatility if labor data surprises the market.
With ETF inflows accelerating, interest rate expectations softening, and seasonal strength returning, analysts believe Bitcoin is poised for a strong Q4 performance.
Bitcoin monthly returns
“Uptober is showing clear signs of an early-Q4 breakout, powered by ETF demand and dovish macro conditions,” Kalchev added.
If momentum continues, Bitcoin ETFs could absorb significant circulating supply, tightening the market further — and fueling a potential new record-breaking rally before year-end.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.
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