Human behavior seen as key driver of crypto market cycles despite growing institutional presence
The long-debated Bitcoin four-year cycle may not unfold exactly as it has in past years, but the pattern is far from disappearing, according to a leading crypto executive.
Speaking at the Token2049 conference in Singapore, Saad Ahmed, head of the Asia-Pacific region at Gemini, said the cycle remains intact in some form. “I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” Ahmed noted.
He explained that investor psychology plays a decisive role in market movements. “It ultimately stems from people getting really excited and overextending themselves, and then you see a crash, and eventually a correction back to equilibrium,” he added.
Market psychology versus institutional influence
The theory of Bitcoin’s four-year rhythm stems from the cryptocurrency’s halving events, which cut the supply of new coins roughly every 48 months. Historically, halvings have been followed by rallies and eventual market pullbacks.
While Ahmed believes human emotion still drives these patterns, he acknowledged that the influx of institutional investors may soften volatility. “You’ll see some of the volatility taper off, but you’ll still see a cycle, because ultimately, it’s driven by psychology,” he said.
Analysts divided on cycle’s future
Crypto research firms and analysts remain split on whether the current market still tracks the traditional pattern. Glassnode recently suggested Bitcoin’s price action continues to align with its historic halving-driven cycle.
Meanwhile, independent analyst Rekt Capital argued that if 2020’s trend repeats, Bitcoin could reach its cycle peak as early as October — about 550 days after the April 2024 halving. “We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” he observed.
Not all experts agree. Matt Hougan of Bitwise has predicted a more prolonged growth phase. “I bet 2026 is an up year. I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” Hougan said.
Adding to the bullish sentiment, historical data shows that Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter since 2013, delivering an average return of nearly 80%. With the asset trading close to record highs, many observers believe the coming months could once again highlight the cyclical nature of the market.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.