Analysts question cycle-based forecasts, debate whether Bitcoin’s rally can extend into 2026
Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains one of the most debated topics in the crypto market, with many traders predicting a cycle peak by the end of this year. However, some analysts argue that such expectations are not rooted in statistical evidence and may be more about market psychology than fundamentals.
Questioning the Halving Cycle’s Relevance
Another key argument is that the halving cycle is no longer the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price action. With the rise of institutional adoption, spot Bitcoin ETFs, and corporate treasury holdings, new factors are influencing the market. “There is zero fundamental reason — other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy — for the peak to occur in Q4 2025,” the analyst noted.
Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, delivering an average return of over 85% since 2013. Over the past 12 months alone, Bitcoin has gained more than 96%, suggesting strong momentum. Yet, if the halving cycle still plays a role, some analysts warn that a downtrend could begin as early as October.
Divided Market Outlook
Forecasts for the coming months remain split. One industry executive suggested there is a greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin could reach the $140,000–$150,000 range this year, before a potential bear market in 2026. On the other hand, some expect the bull run to extend well into 2026, with long-term predictions even calling for prices as high as $250,000.
While Bitcoin’s Q4 performance has historically been strong, analysts caution against over-reliance on past cycles. With new market dynamics at play, the timing of a cycle peak may no longer follow the same statistical pattern — making investor psychology and institutional flows critical factors to watch.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.