BTC Risks First Red Post-Halving Year as Macro Pressure Weighs on Price
Bitcoin is approaching the end of 2025 at a critical juncture, with analysts warning that the asset must stage a 6.24% rally in the final days of the year to avoid closing in negative territory. Without a late recovery, Bitcoin would record its first red annual close in a post-halving year, a notable deviation from historical trends.
Bitcoin opened 2025 at approximately $93,374 but is currently trading below that level. To close the year in the green, BTC must reclaim that price threshold. This comes after Bitcoin surged to an all-time high above $125,000 in October, followed by a sharp market-wide correction that erased nearly 30% of its value.
Since November, Bitcoin has formed a local bottom near $80,000, fueling debate over whether the broader bull cycle has ended or if the market is consolidating before another move higher.
A key concern for analysts is Bitcoin’s sustained move below its 365-day moving average, a level that previously acted as strong long-term support. Remaining below this indicator since November suggests a break in the structural uptrend that began in 2023, increasing downside risk heading into 2026.
Macro conditions remain central to Bitcoin’s outlook. While the US Federal Reserve delivered three 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, recent guidance has been cautious. Markets are increasingly skeptical of near-term easing, with less than 20% probability of a January rate cut currently priced in.
Lower interest rates typically favor risk-on assets like Bitcoin, but uncertainty around liquidity conditions continues to cap upside momentum.
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