In a surprising twist, Bitcoin (BTC) is no longer moving in sync with traditional U.S. risk assets like the Nasdaq 100. Instead, analysts are seeing a growing correlation with Japan’s 30-year government bond (JGB) yields—a trend that may signal a dramatic shift in global macroeconomic dynamics.
BTC and JGBs: A New Correlation Emerges
Weston Nakamura, founder of Across The Spread, points out that BTC has recently aligned more with long-end Japanese bond yields than with equities. According to Nakamura, this marks a potential behavioral re-anchor for the digital asset.
Key correlations include:
- BTC’s price moves are now reflecting the path of rising JGB yields, which have hit multi-year highs.
- This divergence from traditional risk-on assets suggests Bitcoin may now be responding to interest rate expectations through a more global lens—especially Japan’s monetary normalization.
Japan’s Yield Curve Is Shaping Global Markets
What’s even more striking is the chain reaction implied:
Japan’s rising bond yields → Influence on U.S. Treasury yields → Ripple effects across global markets, including crypto.
A clip cited by Nakamura features U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent, who highlights that U.S. 10Y yields are being shaped not by domestic politics—but by Japanese bond markets.
This means that if U.S. macro policy is now responsive to U.S. Treasury yields, and those yields are being pulled by JGB dynamics, Japan could be indirectly steering global monetary conditions.
Why Bitcoin Traders Should Watch Japan
Bitcoin’s brief rallies—such as after the launch of U.S. spot ETFs or political events like Trump’s return to the spotlight—are increasingly proving short-lived, eventually falling back in line with the direction of JGB yields.
As Nakamura emphasizes:
“JGBs may now be the center of gravity for the global financial system—impacting not just crypto, but also equities, FX, and commodities like gold.”
Implications for Investors
- Bitcoin and other digital assets may now require a macro strategy informed by global bond markets, particularly Japan’s long-end rates.
- Investors across all asset classes should pay closer attention to Bank of Japan policy shifts, inflation expectations, and Japan’s capital flow behavior.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is tracking Japan’s 30-year bond yields more closely than traditional assets, signaling a new global macro anchor. As Japanese yields influence U.S. Treasuries, they may be reshaping monetary policy and cross-asset trends worldwide.