Analysts warn that Bitcoin’s recovery remains fragile as inflows from ETFs and MicroStrategy slow, despite rising on-chain activity and miner expansion.
Bitcoin Realized Cap Climbs $8B Amid Fading ETF Momentum
Bitcoin’s realized cap surged by more than $8 billion in the past week, surpassing $1.1 trillion, signaling renewed on-chain activity among investors and miners, according to data from CryptoQuant. The metric, which measures the value of Bitcoin based on the price when each coin last moved, reflects the total capital currently invested in the network.
Despite the sharp uptick, analysts warn the recovery may be unsustainable without stronger participation from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate buyers like MicroStrategy.
“Demand is now driven mostly by ETFs and MicroStrategy, both slowing their buys recently. If these two channels recover, market momentum likely returns,” said Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.
Miners Signal Long-Term Bullish Trend
While institutional demand has cooled, Bitcoin miners are quietly expanding their capacity, a trend viewed as a “long-term bullish indicator.” The network’s hash rate—a measure of computing power—continues to rise as major firms invest in new mining fleets.
One of the largest moves came from American Bitcoin, a miner linked to the Trump family, which reportedly purchased 17,280 ASICs worth over $314 million earlier this year.
“Miner expansion shows confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term profitability, even as market sentiment stays cautious,” noted one analyst familiar with CryptoQuant’s data.
ETF Inflows Could Determine Next Bitcoin Rally
Despite the surge in realized capitalization, investor sentiment remains stuck in “Fear” territory, following the $19 billion market crash in early October. Analysts at Bitfinex suggest Bitcoin could still reach $140,000 by November—but only if ETF inflows rise between $10–15 billion and the Federal Reserve announces monetary easing.
“Catalysts include Fed rate cuts, doubling ETF inflows, and seasonal Q4 strength, while risks remain around tariffs and geopolitics,” said the Bitfinex team.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.