Asset managers are accelerating efforts to bring prediction market strategies into the mainstream ETF structure. This week, both Bitwise Asset Management and GraniteShares submitted prospectuses to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval to launch exchange traded funds tied to U.S. election outcomes.
The proposed products would provide exposure to binary event contracts linked to federal elections. These contracts, traded on exchanges regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, settle at $1 if a specified political outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.
Structure of the Proposed Election ETFs
Bitwise’s planned lineup includes six funds under a prediction-focused branding strategy. Two funds are structured around the 2028 U.S. presidential election, offering exposure depending on whether a Democratic or Republican candidate wins. Another pair targets control of the Senate in 2026, while the final two focus on the House of Representatives.
Each ETF would invest at least 80% of its net assets in event contracts tied to a single outcome. Because of the binary design, the value of each fund would fluctuate between $0 and $1 based on market-implied probabilities. If the selected outcome fails to materialize, investors could lose nearly all invested capital.
GraniteShares has proposed a similar six-fund structure, signaling growing institutional interest in packaging political event exposure into regulated investment vehicles.
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