The long-held belief in Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle may be losing relevance, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who now predicts Bitcoin’s major upside year will be 2026, not 2025.
Why the Traditional Bitcoin Cycle May No Longer Apply
In a recent discussion, Hougan stated, “I bet 2026 is an up year,” signaling a potential break from Bitcoin’s historic post-halving peak timeline. The four-year halving cycle, which traditionally sees Bitcoin surge 12–18 months after a halving event, “is dead,” Hougan said.
“Each halving becomes less important,” he explained, citing the diminishing impact of block reward reductions.
He also highlighted favorable macroeconomic conditions and increased institutional participation as forces that may override the historical cycle. Since April, former U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly urged the Fed to lower interest rates — a move that could increase capital flows into crypto.
Hougan emphasized that regulatory improvements and institutional adoption are reshaping the market. “Blow-up risk is attenuated due to improving regulation,” he said, suggesting a more stable and mature environment for long-term growth.
He added, “The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle forces.”
Bitcoin May Enter a Steady Growth Phase
Rather than expecting a rapid “super-cycle,” Hougan forecasted a “sustained steady boom” in Bitcoin’s price action.
BTC is currently trading at $118,169, up over 10% in the past month. However, Hougan acknowledged risks tied to Bitcoin treasury companies, warning that firms accumulating BTC through debt or equity raises could be exposed if prices drop sharply.
Is the Cycle Truly Over? Not Everyone Agrees
While CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju echoed the idea that whale behavior no longer follows past patterns, others remain cautious. Analyst Rekt Capital suggested that if the 2020 cycle repeats, Bitcoin may peak in October 2025, around 550 days after the 2024 halving.
Conclusion
Whether the four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead or evolving, investors are watching closely. For now, Bitwise believes that 2026 may be Bitcoin’s next breakout year, supported by macroeconomic trends, regulatory clarity, and steady institutional adoption.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.
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