Brazil’s main stock exchange B3 is set to launch six new derivatives known as Event Contracts on April 27, allowing investors to speculate on future outcomes including bitcoin prices, currency movements and stock index performance. The contracts are regulated by Brazil’s securities authority, the CVM, and are designed specifically for professional investors.
These instruments function similarly to prediction markets, with contract prices ranging up to 100 reals ($19). Each price reflects the market’s estimated probability of a specific outcome. The six contracts will cover mini futures and spot prices tied to the Ibovespa index, the U.S. dollar and bitcoin.
Access Limited to High-Net-Worth Investors
Trading in the new products will be restricted to investors holding more than 10 million reals ($1.9 million) in assets or those with CVM certification. The contracts will feature fixed payouts and defined risks from the outset, with settlement handled in cash rather than through delivery of underlying assets.
B3 Vice President of Products and Clients Luiz Masagão stated that the launch forms part of a broader effort to modernize derivatives trading across Brazil. The exchange already provides contracts linked to central bank decisions in several countries.
Growing Competition in Global Prediction Markets
The launch represents Brazil’s first federally regulated prediction market, entering a field that includes domestic platforms such as Prévias and Palpitada, which have operated in regulatory gray areas. International competition is also intensifying, with Kalshi partnering with XP International to offer contracts linked to Brazilian economic outcomes.
B3 is also developing its own tokenization platform and stablecoin, both expected to launch later this year. Globally, prediction market activity has surged, with notional volume approaching $160 billion and user numbers surpassing 3 million.
Despite rapid growth, regulatory oversight remains unsettled. Legal experts in Brazil continue to debate whether long-term supervision of prediction markets should fall under the CVM, the Central Bank or the Ministry of Finance.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.