Analysts maintain bullish outlook despite MSCI uncertainty and sharp valuation reset
Cantor Fitzgerald has sharply reduced its 12-month price target for Strategy, the Bitcoin-focused company led by Michael Saylor, yet the firm insists that investor fears over potential forced liquidations remain overstated. The revised outlook underscores near-term market pressures while highlighting confidence in the long-term trajectory of both the stock and Bitcoin.
Cantor’s Reassessment of Strategy’s Valuation
In a recent note to clients, Cantor cut its target price by roughly 60%, lowering expectations from $560 to $229. Despite this significant adjustment, the firm upheld its buy rating, arguing that concerns around liquidity strain or forced asset sales lack strong grounding. Analysts emphasized that Strategy holds sufficient cash reserves to cover dividend obligations for nearly two years, and retains the ability to raise additional capital through equity offerings if needed. According to the note, only a dramatic 90% decline in Bitcoin’s price would meaningfully threaten the company’s stability.
One lingering concern is the possibility that Strategy could be removed from the MSCI Index due to its digital-asset exposure exceeding 50% of total assets. Such an action could trigger mechanical selling by index-tracking funds. Cantor acknowledged this as a near-term flow headwind, but not a structural threat to the company’s long-term outlook.
Cantor reiterated its constructive outlook on Bitcoin, calling the recent market pullback a “healthy correction.” Analysts noted that Bitcoin’s market value remains just over 6% of gold’s, and that a price near $1.58 million would be required for Bitcoin to match gold’s total capitalization — a benchmark some analysts believe could be reached over the coming decade.
As of the latest trading session, Strategy shares hover near $186, extending a steady decline through the year even as institutional interest in digital assets continues to reshape market dynamics.
Disclaimer
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